El Niño, Indian Monsoon and Agricultural Production 2026-2027

India's agricultural landscape is shaped by a complex interplay of climatic, geographical, socio-economic and institutional factors, among which the southwest monsoon remains the single most influential determinant of agricultural performance. Despite sustained investments in irrigation infrastructure, mechanisation, improved seed varieties and other technological advancements since the Green Revolution, approximately 52per cent of the country's net sown area continues to depend on rainfall. Consequently, a substantial share of agricultural production remains exposed to fluctuations in the timing, intensity and spatial distribution of monsoon precipitation, reinforcing the sector's sensitivity to climatic variability.

In this context, El Niño is one of the most consequential climate phenomena affecting agricultural outcomes in India. As the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it disrupts large-scale atmospheric circulation and frequently weakens the southwest monsoon, increasing the probability of below-normal rainfall across several agricultural regions. Historical evidence illustrates this relationship, with major drought episodes including 1987, 2002, 2009 and 2015 coinciding with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Accordingly, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has consistently recognised ENSO as one of the principal drivers of inter-annual monsoon variability over the Indian subcontinent.

Crop Vulnerability across India's Agricultural Landscape

India's agricultural vulnerability to El Niño is shaped not only by monsoon variability but also by the structural characteristics of its cropping systems. Climatic shocks affect crops unevenly, reflecting differences in water requirements, irrigation coverage, growing seasons and physiological tolerance to moisture stress. Consequently, the implications of a weak monsoon extend beyond aggregate production losses to shifts in cropping patterns, farm incomes and regional food security.

The figure below illustrates the relative sensitivity of major crops to El Niño-induced climatic stress. Water-intensive crops such as rice and sugarcane remain particularly vulnerable owing to their high irrigation and moisture requirements, whereas relatively drought-resilient crops such as millets and pulses exhibit greater adaptive capacity under rainfall-deficit conditions. These disparities underscore the need for climate-informed agricultural planning, including crop diversification, region-specific adaptation strategies and more efficient water-resource management. Strengthening resilience across crop systems will be central to safeguarding food security, improving resource-use efficiency and enhancing the long-term sustainability of Indian agriculture under increasing climatic uncertainty.

 

Source: Department of Agriculture and Farmers’Welfare, FAO Crop Water Information,ICAR, NICRA and IPCC reports

REIMAGINING AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE 

India's response to El Niño must evolve from episodic drought relief towards a comprehensive framework of climate-risk governance. While initiatives such as the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA), Per Drop More Crop, and ICAR's National Innovations on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) have strengthened adaptive capacity. Increasing climatic volatility urgently demands institutions that anticipate risk rather than merely respond to its consequences. The effectiveness of future agricultural policy will depend less on post-disaster compensation and more on the ability to integrate climate intelligence into routine planning.

Agricultural policy should increasingly be organised around agro-climatic regions rather than administrative boundaries. Drought-prone western India, groundwater-stressed north-western states and monsoon-dependent eastern India face fundamentally different climatic risks that require region-specific adaptation strategies, differentiated cropping systems and targeted investment in water-resource management.

A formal National ENSO Response Framework, jointly coordinated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare and state governments, would institutionalise anticipatory action. Seasonal forecasts indicating moderate or strong El Niño conditions should automatically activate contingency protocols, including climate-resilient seed distribution, reservoir and irrigation management, district-level crop advisories and targeted financial support for vulnerable farmers.

Equally important is recognising groundwater as strategic agricultural infrastructure. Sustainable aquifer management, climate-responsive procurement policies and incentives for water-efficient crops should become integral components of agricultural planning. Complementing these reforms with a National Agricultural Climate Risk Observatory integrating climatic, hydrological and agricultural datasets would strengthen evidence-based decision-making, improve early warning systems and enhance the long-term resilience of India's food system.

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🌾 How Does El Niño Affect Agriculture?

1. 🌧️ Weak or Irregular Monsoon

El Niño often causes below-normal or delayed rainfall in India, especially during the monsoon season.

➡️ This can lead to drought-like conditions in rain-fed agricultural areas.

2. 🌱 Reduced Crop Production

Insufficient rainfall can affect the growth of crops such as:

• 🌾 Rice
• 🌽 Maize
• 🌱 Pulses
• 🌿 Soybean
• 🥜 Groundnut
• 🌾 Cotton

Lack of water can reduce germination, plant growth, flowering, and yield.

3. 💧 Water Shortage

Lower rainfall can reduce water levels in:

• Reservoirs
• Rivers
• Groundwater sources

This may reduce the availability of water for irrigation and livestock.

4. 🌡️ Higher Temperatures

El Niño can cause unusually hot conditions in some regions.

High temperatures may lead to:

• Heat stress in crops
• Faster moisture loss from soil
• Poor flowering and fruit setting
• Reduced grain filling
• Increased water requirements

5. 🐛 Increased Pest and Disease Problems

Hot and dry conditions can sometimes increase the risk of certain pests, including:

• Aphids
• Thrips
• Mites
• Whiteflies

Climate changes can also alter the spread and severity of some crop diseases.

6. 💰 Impact on Farmers' Income

Lower crop yields can result in:

• Reduced farm income
• Higher production costs
• Increased crop prices
• Greater financial stress for farmers

🌾 Are There Any Positive Effects?

Yes, in some regions, El Niño may bring more rainfall than usual, depending on local weather patterns. Some areas may also experience reduced excessive rainfall and flooding. However, for Indian agriculture, El Niño is generally associated with a risk of weaker or irregular monsoon conditions.